This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
By Cameron Dueck
Silent Sound may be halfway home, but we’re now entering some of the most treacherous waters in the Arctic as we sail past the graves of those who died seeking this passage hundreds of years ago.
Silent Sound left Cambridge Bay on Thursday morning, and we’re now nearing Gjoa Haven on King William Island. Victory Point is where Franklin’s men left their last note in a cairn before stumbling on through the snow, eventually succumbing to cannibalism and a cold and miserable death.
None of that for us, I hope. We have about 4,600 nautical miles behind us, with some 4,000 miles left to go. The journey has become more difficult in the past week, but nothing to match the hardships of true explorers. We had some engine trouble in the week before reaching Cambridge Bay, and that meant our whole visit was taken up with greasy work deep in the bilges as we remounted the engine.
We added to our woes by running aground as we came into Cambridge Bay, giving us a forced seven-hour time out as we waited for the tide to lift us. A humbling experience, but thankfully there was no serious damage.
The men who left their names on the bays and islands around us battled winter storms and scurvy to stay alive; we battle to keep our laptops charged GPS working. Same place, different time.
The crew of Silent Sound have been reflecting on those differences in recent weeks as we’ve dropped anchor in increasingly remote communities and marvelled at how past traditions and the reality of 21st century life come together.
Online social communities are a huge hit, and a we’ve seen grandmothers put down the traditional skin clothing they are sewing to have an online video chat with their grandchildren thousands of miles away. Yet, we have also been struck by how the land and its wildlife permeate all aspects of life. Hunting still rules the calendar for many people here, and we’ve benefited from their success as we’ve left every port with a fridge full of game. Those that do hold regular 9-to-5 jobs drop their work and pick up their rifles when the summer beluga migration begins or they spot a herd of caribou.
Those hunters have been extremely generous in sharing their game with us, giving us a welcome break from our dry provisions of beans and pasta.
We are not the first to rely on the Inuit for fresh meat, but while early explorers left with their holds full of furs and lands claimed for their king, we leave each port with new Facebook friends and a better understanding of how climate change and modern conveniences are changing the face of Inuit culture.
Monthly Archives: August 2009
Northeast Passage: Weather or climate?
This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
By Neil Hamilton
We have been anchored for a day in the calm and beautiful Bukta Pronchishchevoy, basking in 15 degree temperatures and bright sunshine. It’s ideal for filming the rarely seen Laptev walrus (which Frederik is doing) and adjusting to the 6 hour time change between Murmansk and Tiksi which we chose to’ implement’ on ‘ship time’ here.
Such amazing weather here, plus the ice we encountered in the Vilkitsky Strait around Cape Chelyuskin, prompted several questions from the crew about how we can say that climate change is affecting the Arctic. Couldn’t it just be natural variations in weather?
The answer isn’t simple: first you need to understand the difference between climate and weather. Someone once said to me that “climate is what you want, but weather is what you get”. In other words weather is what actually happens on a given day, whereas climate is the long term average of weather over say 20 or more years. I’m sure you ‘know’ what the summer is supposed to be like at your home, or favourite beach holiday place: in a sense that is climate; but what actually occurs this year at that place is weather.
In the Arctic there is no doubt that the climate is warming. It’s warming faster and further than anywhere else on Earth. From 60 degrees North (that’s south of Oslo!) to the Pole, the annual average air temperature has risen more than 2 degrees above the long term average. There is absolutely no question that Nordenskjold, Nansen, and all the other explorers undertook their expeditions in a much colder climate than we have. Seasonally it is now also much warmer, particularly in autumn. And some places in the Arctic, like the region we are entering now, are warming faster than other places.
But the Arctic has another attribute you don’t see in many other places: sea ice, which plays a dramatic role in both weather and climate. Sea ice forms in winter and covers much of the arctic ocean, and more than half of it melts each summer. The amount that is melting however is increasing dramatically, a fact we know from satellite imagery. What we experienced at Cape Chelyuskin was the sea ice equivalent of ‘weather’: a small (well, relatively speaking!) stream of ice broken off the pack around Severnaya Zemlya and pushed south by the wind. I would have been very surprised if there had been no ice there at all, as this is the northernmost continental point on the planet.
This is part of what I explained to my colleagues on the boat, together with an explanation of how we know what is natural and what is man made climate change. But that can wait for another blog.
Northeast Passage: Walrus 1, Bear 0
This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
By Neil Hamilton
The amazing sight of 5 polar bears waiting around a large Laptev walrus rookery has given way to a more analytical look at what is actually happening there. We have noticed that almost all the bears are in relatively poor condition, and appear to be injured. What is going on here?
It’s pretty difficult to tell without spending a lot of time here or examining the bears more closely, which I certainly don’t want to do: a safe polar bear is one that is a long way away! But it is possible to piece together at least parts of the puzzle.
Firstly, we know that as a result of climate change there is no sea ice for many hundreds of kilometres from here. It now melts early, and returns late each year. That means that there are no ringed seals (the main food of the polar bear) around. The bears have probably been trapped at the coast since the sea ice disappeared in June or early July, wandering around looking for anything they can scavenge. They are faced with the inevitability of spending the next few months with no reliable food source. We know from several studies that bears in this position lose huge amounts of body weight, which translates directly into reproductive success: less weight, less surviving cubs next year.
Secondly, we know that a fully grown walrus is more than a match for a bear. I’ve seen many accounts of walrus fighting off bear attacks, and anyone who works on walrus can tell you how fast they can move when they want to. They might look like bags of blubber on land, but those bags can move like a rocket over short distances. And in water they are even more dangerous, thinking nothing of attacking a Zodiac. They are not known as ‘the hippo of the Arctic’ for nothing.
Thirdly, the injuries to the bears looked like puncture wounds, and several were in pairs about 30cm apart. many were on the back or the hind quarters of the bears, leaving substantial blood stains on the fur.
I’m sure you’re getting the picture by know. Starving bears, a walrus colony with young, and not a seal in sight. It might not be McDonalds, but the possibility of some tender young walrus just could be worth a tusk or two in the rump.
That’s climate change in the Arctic.
Northeast Passage: A handful of bears
This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
By Neil Hamilton
A polar bear in Bukhta Pronchishchevoy
Well, what an utterly incredible day. Having just written a blog about why there have been no polar bear sightings today I saw five, all in a small area.
We have continued sailing south eastwards around the Taimyr peninsula, one of the largest and most remote wilderness regions on earth. This afternoon entered one of the few safe harbours in the region, called Bukhta Pronchishchevoy. It’s named after the wife of a Russian arctic explorer who travelled with him. Both died not far from here. The coast here shows signs of significant erosion due to permafrost melting, one of the symptoms of climate change. Big ice wedges and layers are visible in the erosion cliffs where the permafrost has become exposed. But there has been no sea ice here for several weeks at least.
On entering the harbour we saw walrus in the water, and then a walrus rookery on a shingle spit with perhaps 200 Laptev walrus. Three polar bears (probably a mother and two grown cubs) lay only metres from the walrus. Two more polar bears prowled the hills behind. The walrus with young were in the water, keeping safely out of reach of the bears.
Anders found a safe anchorage a couple of kilometres away next to an abandoned hydrometerological station (the only habitation of any sort for hundreds of miles). We returned to the walrus rookery in the Zodiac, keeping well off shore so not to disturb them, and watched. The large bear prowled around the walrus pack, then charged at some of the outlying walrus, trying to separate the young from their mothers. All escaped, this time. The rest of the walrus constantly bellow irrespective of threat and seemed more interested in squabbling than repelling the bear. The bear walked to the shoreline and sat, watching, sniffing, sizing us up.
A simply incredible experience. After an hour or so we left them and returned to the ship and watched the sunset (almost: it was midnight, and the sun barely goes below the horizon here). It is hard to believe that we have the privilege to experience such a place. I doubt any one has been here for ten years.
Northeast Passage: Where are the polar bears?
This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
By Neil Hamilton
Last night we celebrated our successful passage past Cape Chelyuskin and the Taimyr peninsula with a wonderful dinner of reindeer, from the leg that we bought from the Nenets herders on Weygach Island. It has been hanging outside for the past few days aging perfectly and simply melted in the mouth. Culinary bliss on an expedition is a rare thing, but it does happen!
Now that we are cruising happily in the ice-free (apart from the beautiful but lone glacier iceberg from Servernaya Zemlya we passed 6 hours ago) Laptev Sea, it’s worth reflecting on what we didn’t see during our transit through the ice: polar bears. The most we saw were some old tracks on an ice floe.
There are definitely polar bears here: it is prime habitat, and we saw many seals on the way through the ice, resting on the ice or swimming in the water: ringed, bearded, and harp (or Greenland) seals. The IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group, the ‘peak body’ for assessing population trends and threats to the species, believes there are 500 to 1000 bears in the Laptev Sea region, and an unknown number in the Kara Sea.
I can only surmise that the bear population has already retreated northwards as the ice broke up weeks ago, so would be more visible around the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago. Any remaining bears would most likely be found slightly nearer to the coast than we sailed, in the broken but more dense ice that provides a better hunting ground.
Very little is known about both the Kara and Laptev region polar bear sub-populations. This reflects the intense remoteness of the area. It is unclear whether the numbers of bears is growing or shrinking, and the population estimates are not adequate for management purposes. This is a critical problem as the impacts of climate change on polar bears are expected to be severe, particularly in this region where the warming is intense (last autumn was 5 degrees above average here) and the ice is being lost so rapidly.
So we hope that as we move south eastwards along the Taimyr coast, across the Lena Delta, and into the Chukchi Sea we will have better opportunities to observe bears. Novaya Zemlya and perhaps most importantly Wrangel Island are in front of us. We also hope to see the elusive Laptev Sea walrus!
Northeast Passage: We’re through!
This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
By Neil Hamilton
I guess we weren’t as lucky as I thought we might be. We spent all of yesterday negotiating our way through heavy drifting pack ice that had moved south from Severnaya Zemlya, trying every lead to see if any opened up. At one stage we moored to an ice floe and drifted for an hour to see exactly how fast the ice was moving, in which direction. I never doubted that we would make it through, but you do start making mental plans about what you will do if you do get stuck.
I can assure you that being an ice pilot under these conditions is not fun: standing still on the wheelhouse roof astride the boom for four hours with binoculars glued to your eyes every second, air temperature a few degrees below zero, water at -1.8. You start dancing to imaginary Abba songs just to keep your legs functional, and pretend you are a seagull to keep the blood flowing to your hands despite two pairs of gloves. Really cold. Much colder than I was at -30 at the North Pole, much colder than in a blizzard on Franz Josef Land.
Perseverance pays off. Early this morning Moscow time we passed Cape Chelyuskin, the northern most point of the Eurasian continent, in poor visibility and heavy drifting sea ice. We covered more distance in 2 hours than we had in the previous 24, heading steadily eastwards. We are not clear of the ice yet however, as I can still see floes all around us and in some directions the route is closed. Eastwards it looks really good, and the further we go into the Laptev Sea before turning south the better our passage will be. In some ways that is a pity as I would love to get close to the coast of the Lena delta.
Everyone is really tired now after several days continuous hard work. The boat is quiet, most people sleeping when they are not on watch. We know the hardest part of the journey is over and can look forward to more shore landings, more wildlife, and new and unexpected encounters with things natural and human.
PS: Unless someone corrects me, I’ll claim the crown of “First Australian to pass Cape Chelyuskin in a Sailing Yacht”. Any challengers?
Northeast Passage: Ice and rain
This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
By Neil Hamilton
Since about 6am we have been negotiating increasingly present drifting fragments of sea ice with a recent snow cover of about 20cm. The ice has all the forms of the last stages of melt but makes navigation difficult. Ola then Hannibal then Per Magnus take turns standing on the middle cross trees of the mast, about 15m above the deck, to see as far as possible and find a path to open water.
The sea is totally calm like a pond, which is normal when there is ice around as it dampens the waves. The wind has dropped right off, too. We had hoped for a south easterly to blow the ice away from the coast but it doesn’t seem to have eventuated. Visibility in the early morning is stunning: at least 10 nautical miles, but then the rain comes and drops it to less than a mile.
We have been trying to get to the coast at Cape Vega, named after the vessel of Nordenskjold when he did the first transit of the Northeast Passage. He was stopped by ice in the Laptev sea and was forced to overwinter before he could continue. Our luck seems different however: Cape Vega is firmly protected by land-fast ice, so we cannot reach it, but the Laptev Sea has been ice free for some weeks.
Anders navigates skillfully around ice floes small and large and heads back out to the north west away from the heavy ice. We can cruise quite comfortably at 7 to 8 knots using the motor so the ice is not slowing us down at all. If we are lucky we will reach the Vilkitsky Strait in a few hours and then be around Cape Chelyuskin shortly afterwards. If we are not, and find more drifting ice preventing our forward passage, it will take another day or two to be in the clear.
Northeast Passage: Navigation
This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
By Neil Hamilton
Sea ice as seen from the Explorer of Sweden
Being firmly in the most difficult part of the expedition with regard to sea ice, we have been spending considerable time discussing which route to take now. We receive daily updates of images derived from passive microwave radar (thanks to Georg at the University of Bremen, and DAMOCLES!) plus radio reports and imagery from a couple of Russian icebreakers in the region whenever we want them. Not that they are necessary at the moment, the sea we are travelling through has less than 10% ice cover, so it barely slows us down and just makes vigilance on our watches more important.
The discussion usually revolves around whether we should wait a little before proceeding into the Vilkitsky Strait region, the main navigation route between Cape Chelyuskin (the northernmost point of Eurasia) and the islands of Zevernaya Zemlya. So much depends on the wind moving the mobile rotten sea ice (ice in the last stages of melting) that is all that we are seeing. At present we are at 76 degrees 47 minutes North 100 degrees 12 minutes East heading north east, and are hoping that the change in wind direction from North West to South East will maker our passage easier. Not that it has been difficult: you could drive a super tanker up the route we have taken so far!
There is however a blockage in front of us according to the ice charts from the weekend. My hope is that by the time we reach it, in perhaps 12 hours, it will have cleared and we will have open water all the way to Providenya in the Bering Strait. We know the Laptev sea has been completely free of ice for perhaps a month, a trend that has been increasingly common for the past few years. So much for the frozen Arctic Ocean, the impacts of climate change are obvious up here.
So we continue our voyage with binoculars glued to our eyes, trying to work out if that lightish patch on the clouds on the horizon is reflection off ice, or just the dawn. Just a small piece of ice could be dangerous to ‘Explorer’ despite her ice reinforcement. The sea is totally calm (common when there is even a small amount of ice in the water), with no wind. Beautifully tranquil at 3am.
Northeast Passage: Is climate change real?
This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
Navigating through the floating sea ice
We have been sitting waiting for the wind to change for 36 hours now, securely anchored in a bay at Tyrtova Island. Apart from our usual activities, there has been ample time to talk about many issues including the reason I’m here in the first place: Climate Change.
From my perspective, the past few months has seen an upsurge in misinformation and ‘climate skepticism’ in the world’s media.Perhaps this is just a natural reaction to the increased profile of the issue in the lead up to Copenhagen in December. We see many of the same simple old arguments raised again, despite having been put firmly to bed over the past decade. “When Erik the Red went to Greenland, it was warmer than today”, “Climate Change has been happening for millions of years, there is no evidence that it is caused by man”, “CO2 is necessary for plants to grow, how can it be bad?”, and “there are so many other more pressing problems in the world, why is all the emphasis being given to something that isn’t going to affect us for many years?”, and so on. I’m sure you know the drill. Some of the crew even noted that there is a lot of ice around us, so maybe the problem isn’t as bad as I make it out to be.
The reality is that the science is very, very clear. Human-induced climate change is real, and dangerous. There is no doubt at all, no necessity for debate. In the Arctic the evidence is probably clearer than anywhere else, with the loss of almost half the summer sea ice since 1980, changes to the ecology, and really obvious warming: last autumn was 5 degrees warmer than normal!
What is really difficult is to communicate the complexity of the climate system. Many people simply don’t have the time or inclination to delve into answering the questions they legitimately pose. Science has done its best to communicate the knowledge that has been developed, through institutions like the IPCC. However, the old saying, “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink” is as applicable in this arena as anywhere else.
Organisations like WWF and many others try very hard to present the information in a coherent and easy to understand manner. There is obviously a need to do better to counter the tide of misinformation, to get across the absolute basics of the problem to vast numbers of people who will be affected. My part in that is small, but I hope that through expeditions such as this we can make a difference.
Northeast Passage: The anxious wait
This summer, WWF is helping support two expeditions that will take on some of the world’s most difficult waters, to see first-hand the effects of Arctic climate change. One expedition is sailing across the top of Russia, a journey of 6000 nautical miles through the Northeast Passage, while another is attempting a west to east transit of the Northwest Passage, also by sailing boat, a journey of about 7,000 nautical miles.
Tom Arnbom of Sweden was on the ‘Explorer of Sweden’ though the Northeast Passage, as was WWF Arctic Programme Director Neil Hamilton for much of the trip, replaced near the end by WWF polar bear coordinator Geoff York. On the ‘Silent Sound’ Cameron Dueck of the Open Passage Expedition is filing regular stories from the Northwest passage. Come back for photos and stories throughout the summer, and follow the progress of the boats as they follow in the wake of some of history’s most intrepid explorers.
By Neil Hamilton
Scouting for a way through the sea ice
Yesterday we arrived at Tyrtova Island in the Nordenskjold archipelago and found a sheltered anchorage on the western side, out of danger of drifting ice. The water temperature is about minus 1, the air a bit cooler. A strong breeze blows constantly to create a wind chill that makes it feel significantly cold.
Our arrival was a welcome break for everyone: we had travelled through broken drift ice all day. Constant vigilance is required to avoid hitting something that could bring the expedition to a premature end. Now we wait for the forecast wind change that will drive the ice away from our route to Cape Chelyuskin and the Laptev Sea (which has been free of ice for about a month already. We celebrated with a fantastic chicken tikka masala dinner in the cosy saloon and watched some of Fredrik’s fantastic footage shot in Antarctica.
This morning we all realise that this is the cliffhanger moment of the expedition. Despite all the satellite images and ice breaker reports we simply don’t know if it will be possible to traverse the short stretch of water to an ice free and safe passage eastwards. We can’t just sit and wait forever for the ice to melt, as there is still a long way to go. Our best judgement tells us to wait for the wind change, hopefully tomorrow, and then run north east to the Vilkitsky Strait. But we know it won’t be that simple: the ice moves fast, not always with the wind, and an ice blockage only 50 metres across would stop our progress.
So we wait. Everyone is quietly doing their jobs, or writing, or sleeping, and you can sense the tension. We all know that global warming is melting the arctic sea ice – that’s why we are here! But the navigational realities have little to do with the loss of 100,000 square kilometres of ice from the arctic ocean each day. We could easily be stopped by some of that fragmenting, melting, ice, drifting in its last days before giving up its identity to the ocean.
This is a different world from that of Nansen, Nordenskjold, and even more recent arctic explorers, when the ice was much thicker, more consistent, and covered a much wider area. Even recently, for 8 years out of ten since 1980 this area has been covered with ice (see the latest National Snow and Ice Data Centre animation). Now it’s a new world, an unpredictable world, where all the ice breakers in the world can’t provide a safe passage through the once-frozen sea ice lanscape. We are well on the way to creating a new ocean and I’m watching it happen.