Clive Tesar, Head of Communications for the Arctic Programme, attended the ‘2030 North’ conference in Ottawa, Canada. The challenge of the conference was to try to imagine what life in Canada’s North will be like in 2030, and to devise a plan to deal with that new reality.
By Clive Tesar
WWF’s contribution to the 2030 North conference was to broaden the topic of climate change outside of our traditional area of wildlife, and to focus instead on the security aspects of climate collapse. This does not mean that we are changing our area of interest, just that we realize that not everyone is as interested as we are in saving the natural world for its own sake.
To reach a wider audience, we need to talk about the wider implications of Arctic climate change. The Arctic Programme has commissioned a study on Arctic Climate and Security. The study, led by Dr. Rob Huebert, a well-known Canadian expert on Arctic security issues, is to be released later this year.
At our ‘climate wars 2030’ event, Huebert was able to give people a sneak preview of where his research is heading. He detailed the recent build-up of military interest and capacity in the north. While not suggesting that conflict in the north is imminent, his research shows that various parties are certainly preparing for that possibility.
Huebert was joined on the stage by Gwynne Dyer, a distinguished London-based broadcaster and author. Dyer’s latest book is called ‘climate wars’, and details how a warming world can easily boil over in series of global flashpoints.
The thesis is simple, but powerful. Projections for a global temperature increase above 2 degrees mean many of the world’s people will go hungry. The temperature tolerance of the world’s main food crops will be exceeded in tropical and subtropical regions. “India will lose 25% of its agricultural production at two degrees hotter,” says Dyer. He says figures published only fleetingly from China suggest the giant nation could lose up to 38% of its agricultural production.
As agricultural production declines, says Dyer, “Your most dangerous neighbour lies between you and the equator.” His eyes roamed the room, watching the point sink in for a Canadian audience – in Canada, that means a hungry United States that may be in no mood for the niceties of international relations. “So the generals have reason to be concerned” adds Dyer. “If I was Russian, I’d be worried about the Chinese running out of food.”
It was a powerful presentation, and definitely seemed to make the audience aware that climate change is not just about disappearing ice, and thinner polar bears, but a global problem that requires an urgent global solution.
Clive Tesar, Head of Communications for the Arctic Programme, attended the ‘2030 North’ conference in Ottawa, Canada. The challenge of the conference was to try to imagine what life in Canada’s North will be like in 2030, and to devise a plan to deal with that new reality.